Exit Polls Predict Major Win for Narendra Modi in India’s 2024 Election

Exit polls released on Saturday predict that Narendra Modi is set to secure a decisive victory, returning for a third five-year term as India’s prime minister. These polls, conducted by six Indian TV stations and agencies, project a clear win for Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its smaller allies. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Modi, is forecasted to win a comfortable majority, securing between 353 and 401 seats in India’s 543-seat Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament.

This projected outcome provides Modi with a strong mandate to form the next government, potentially extending his tenure into a second decade. In the previous election in 2019, the NDA won 352 lower house seats, with the BJP alone securing 303 of those seats. The Election Commission of India is scheduled to report the official results on June 4.

“All pollsters have given the BJP a very comfortable victory,” noted Rahul Verma, a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, a New Delhi-based think tank. “Some even suggest the BJP will surpass the 300-seat mark again or improve upon it.”

The exit polls were published after the final round of voting concluded on Saturday afternoon. A ban on the publication of opinion polls, which was in place since the voting began on April 19, was lifted following the last phase of the marathon election. The election was conducted in stages due to the logistical challenges of casting ballots and securing polling stations across India’s diverse geographies, accommodating nearly 1 billion registered voters.

These exit poll results provide the first indications of the composition of India’s next parliament after an election that many viewed as a referendum on Modi’s decade-long leadership. If the predictions are confirmed on Tuesday, when the official results are announced, Modi’s victory will further bolster his image as one of the world’s most influential leaders, steering a fast-growing economy with increasing geopolitical clout.

While exit polls have had a mixed record in predicting India’s elections, they have recently become more reliable indicators of voter decisions. In the 2014 and 2019 elections, exit polls correctly forecasted victories for the BJP-led NDA, although they underestimated the number of seats won by Modi’s bloc.

Shazia Ilmi, a national spokesperson for the BJP, expressed confidence in the exit poll predictions, stating, “I think this is exactly how things will pan out, and we will see a resounding victory for Modi and the BJP for a third consecutive term without any difficulty.”

Modi, 73, campaigned on the slogan “Modi’s guarantee,” highlighting government welfare programs that benefit hundreds of millions of Indians, along with his track record of reducing poverty and fostering economic development. India’s GDP grew at an impressive rate of 7.8% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to March, making it one of the fastest-growing economies globally since the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the campaign, the opposition INDIA alliance criticized the BJP’s economic record, citing persistently high unemployment. They also accused the BJP of attempting to undermine the opposition by imprisoning two state leaders and freezing some Congress bank accounts just before the election.

On the day the exit poll results were released, senior opposition alliance members, including Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, convened, with some claiming they were poised to win.

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